Capstone — North Shore Outfitters: Close → Clean → Explain → Forecast → Decide
==============================================================================

This capstone pulls together Track D into one realistic deliverable set.
You will **close**, **clean**, **explain**, **forecast**, and **recommend actions** for
North Shore Outfitters (NSO).

The capstone is designed to feel like a real analyst/accountant engagement:

* You start with messy-but-usable operational and accounting exports.
* You build a documented, analysis-ready dataset.
* You explain what happened (with uncertainty and guardrails).
* You produce forecasts that tie across **P&L + Balance Sheet + Cash**.
* You end with a short decision memo that a CFO could act on.

You do **not** need to invent complex accounting mechanics.
Track D is built so your work can be grounded in the NSO tables already produced by the
simulator and the chapter scripts.

How to get the NSO case dataset
-------------------------------

Track D uses a synthetic NSO dataset generated by the repo's simulator.
From the repo root:

.. code-block:: bash

   make business-nso-sim

This writes the NSO v1 dataset under:

* ``data/synthetic/nso_v1/`` (monthly tables, 24 months)

Optional (recommended) validation step:

.. code-block:: bash

   make business-validate

Submission format
-----------------

Submit a single folder (zip is fine) that contains your deliverables.
Use filenames that make review easy, for example:

* ``01_close_controls/``
* ``02_analysis_ready_data/``
* ``03_performance_analysis/``
* ``04_forecast_pack/``
* ``05_decision_memo/``

Deliverables
------------

1) Close & Controls Pack
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Minimum contents:

* Bank reconciliation summary (reconciling items categorized)
* AR tie-out (AR aging or AR rollforward, with exceptions)
* AP tie-out (AP aging or AP rollforward, with exceptions)
* Exception report (duplicates, timing outliers, one-offs, negative balances)
* Corrections log (what you changed, why, and impact)

High-value additions:

* A short narrative: "What could go wrong next month if controls stay weak?"
* A control owner list: who signs off on each check

2) Analysis-ready Dataset
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Minimum contents:

* A tidy GL table (one row per posting/transaction line)
* Supporting tables you relied on (chart of accounts, customers/vendors, etc.)
* A data dictionary (table name, key fields, units, definitions)
* An assumptions log (what you inferred or standardized)

High-value additions:

* A reproducible build note: the steps to go from raw tables to tidy tables
* A data quality checklist with pass/fail and comments

3) Performance Analysis
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Minimum contents:

* Trend and variance analysis (month-over-month, year-over-year)
* A driver narrative grounded in Track D methods (not vibes)
* A short "uncertainty" section (what you can't conclude)

Acceptable analysis styles:

* Structured variance bridges (volume, price, mix, one-offs)
* Regression-style driver models (with diagnostics and practical interpretation)

Guardrails:

* Avoid causal overclaiming ("associated with" is safer than "caused")
* Use accountant-friendly interpretation (rates, baselines, ranges)

4) Forecast Pack
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Minimum contents:

* 12-month rolling forecast (P&L + Balance Sheet + Cash tie-out)
* 13-week cash forecast (direct method)
* Three scenarios (base, downside, upside) with explicit assumption changes
* A simple backtest summary and error metrics (at least one forecast horizon)

Forecast hygiene expectations:

* Forecasts reconcile across statements (cash tie-out is explicit)
* Assumptions are written down, versioned, and owned

5) Decision Memo
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Minimum contents (1–2 pages):

* Recommended actions (specific, time-bounded)
* Expected impact ranges (not point estimates only)
* Risks and trade-offs
* Monitoring plan: KPIs + thresholds + owners

Suggested build order
---------------------

A practical sequence that stays close to the book:

1. Generate dataset: ``make business-nso-sim``
2. Validate and clean: Ch06–Ch07 patterns
3. Explain performance: Ch08, Ch16–Ch17, Ch22
4. Forecast:

   * Cash: Ch19
   * Integrated three statements: Ch20
   * Scenario + stress: Ch21

5. Communicate: Ch23 templates + dashboards + governance

Templates and rubric
--------------------

Use the provided templates to keep your deliverables structured:

* :doc:`business_capstone_templates`

Your work is graded using the rubric:

* :doc:`business_capstone_rubric`