Capstone — North Shore Outfitters: Close → Clean → Explain → Forecast → Decide

This capstone pulls together Track D into one realistic deliverable set. You will close, clean, explain, forecast, and recommend actions for North Shore Outfitters (NSO).

The capstone is designed to feel like a real analyst/accountant engagement:

  • You start with messy-but-usable operational and accounting exports.

  • You build a documented, analysis-ready dataset.

  • You explain what happened (with uncertainty and guardrails).

  • You produce forecasts that tie across P&L + Balance Sheet + Cash.

  • You end with a short decision memo that a CFO could act on.

You do not need to invent complex accounting mechanics. Track D is built so your work can be grounded in the NSO tables already produced by the simulator and the chapter scripts.

How to get the NSO case dataset

Track D uses a synthetic NSO dataset generated by the repo’s simulator. From the repo root:

make business-nso-sim

This writes the NSO v1 dataset under:

  • data/synthetic/nso_v1/ (monthly tables, 24 months)

Optional (recommended) validation step:

make business-validate

Submission format

Submit a single folder (zip is fine) that contains your deliverables. Use filenames that make review easy, for example:

  • 01_close_controls/

  • 02_analysis_ready_data/

  • 03_performance_analysis/

  • 04_forecast_pack/

  • 05_decision_memo/

Deliverables

1) Close & Controls Pack

Minimum contents:

  • Bank reconciliation summary (reconciling items categorized)

  • AR tie-out (AR aging or AR rollforward, with exceptions)

  • AP tie-out (AP aging or AP rollforward, with exceptions)

  • Exception report (duplicates, timing outliers, one-offs, negative balances)

  • Corrections log (what you changed, why, and impact)

High-value additions:

  • A short narrative: “What could go wrong next month if controls stay weak?”

  • A control owner list: who signs off on each check

2) Analysis-ready Dataset

Minimum contents:

  • A tidy GL table (one row per posting/transaction line)

  • Supporting tables you relied on (chart of accounts, customers/vendors, etc.)

  • A data dictionary (table name, key fields, units, definitions)

  • An assumptions log (what you inferred or standardized)

High-value additions:

  • A reproducible build note: the steps to go from raw tables to tidy tables

  • A data quality checklist with pass/fail and comments

3) Performance Analysis

Minimum contents:

  • Trend and variance analysis (month-over-month, year-over-year)

  • A driver narrative grounded in Track D methods (not vibes)

  • A short “uncertainty” section (what you can’t conclude)

Acceptable analysis styles:

  • Structured variance bridges (volume, price, mix, one-offs)

  • Regression-style driver models (with diagnostics and practical interpretation)

Guardrails:

  • Avoid causal overclaiming (“associated with” is safer than “caused”)

  • Use accountant-friendly interpretation (rates, baselines, ranges)

4) Forecast Pack

Minimum contents:

  • 12-month rolling forecast (P&L + Balance Sheet + Cash tie-out)

  • 13-week cash forecast (direct method)

  • Three scenarios (base, downside, upside) with explicit assumption changes

  • A simple backtest summary and error metrics (at least one forecast horizon)

Forecast hygiene expectations:

  • Forecasts reconcile across statements (cash tie-out is explicit)

  • Assumptions are written down, versioned, and owned

5) Decision Memo

Minimum contents (1–2 pages):

  • Recommended actions (specific, time-bounded)

  • Expected impact ranges (not point estimates only)

  • Risks and trade-offs

  • Monitoring plan: KPIs + thresholds + owners

Suggested build order

A practical sequence that stays close to the book:

  1. Generate dataset: make business-nso-sim

  2. Validate and clean: Ch06–Ch07 patterns

  3. Explain performance: Ch08, Ch16–Ch17, Ch22

  4. Forecast:

    • Cash: Ch19

    • Integrated three statements: Ch20

    • Scenario + stress: Ch21

  5. Communicate: Ch23 templates + dashboards + governance

Templates and rubric

Use the provided templates to keep your deliverables structured:

Your work is graded using the rubric: